Drop odds
How dry are you? Enter the drop rate and your kills to see how often a run like yours would happen. Already received a few drops? Add them to compare your loot.
Enter your attempts to check a streak or compare your drops.
Check the highlighted values to see your result.
These are three separate outcomes across the same number of attempts. Past drops or misses do not change your next attempt.
Use the drop chance above to look ahead. These attempts start now, regardless of how long you have already been waiting.
Include banking and travel in your pace. This changes time only.
Check the drop chance and forecast inputs.
Chance of at least one drop
All counts are additional attempts. Even a 95% chance can finish without a drop.
Check a dry streak or compare your drops with a fixed drop rate. Plan more attempts with chance targets and optional time estimates.
There is a 36.75% chance of receiving no drops, even though the expected count is one.
A 1/512 drop does not arrive on a schedule. Being twice the rate makes a dry streak less common; it does not make the next kill more likely to drop the item.
Multiply attempts by the drop chance for the expected count. Use the binomial distribution to compare drops received; future odds start from the next attempt.
If the rate is per roll, enter rolls. If it is the chance of one drop per completed raid, enter completions at that same chance. Count only attempts where you were eligible for the item.
Invisible progress rolls, bad-luck protection and changing drop rates need their own calculation. Barrows equipment odds also account for several pieces dropping in one chest.
